A related concept is "peak oil production,"  when oil production starts
an inexorable decline, causing oil prices to increase.   Here, the term "peak oil" will
refer to peak oil production.

The amount of oil produced by a particular oil field, or a region, shows a
regular pattern: first oil production increases, then it reaches a peak, and,
finally, as the oil field begins to dry up, oil production starts an
inexorable decline.

 

Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3475

 

Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4415#comments_top

This "bell curve" pattern of oil production, called the Hubbert curve,
is also true for world oil production as a whole.

 

 

Below, the countries in red are already past their oil production peak;
those in green have yet to pass peak (but most will in the next 5 or 10
years).  

 

(Source:  http://www.davidstrahan.com/map.html To see an interactive atlas the
above graphic, click here.)

 

Source:  http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_Summary_10-2007.pdf

 

Global rates of discovery of new oil fields has been on a terminal
decline since 1964.

 

Source:  ASPO
 

The graph below suggests that we may be on a "bumpy plateau" for a while before we
start down the inexorable down slope of the bell shaped Hubbert curve.
 

 

Source:  http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5416#more

Peak Oil Production:  Bell Shaped Curve of World Oil Production

        " ...global oil supply (is peaking) lower and sooner than
             had been contemplated earlier."
                          -- Allan Greenspan
                              Wall Street Journal, 12/15/2007
                              http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119763743685729349.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_new

Below are some projected worst, mean, and best case scenarios for
future world oil production.
 

     (Graph of  Actual and Projected World Oil Production
                     Source: Dr. C. J. Campbell)

In the long view, humans will have devoured the entire world's oil
reserves in only about 150 years.  (Our descendants may not
be too happy with us.)

Here is a brief video overview of the problem:

The U.S. military is aware of the problem.  The 2010 Joint Operating Enviornment
Report stated: "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and
as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."

                        
                                     Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

1. We are close to, or at, both of these  inflection points now:

	Peak oil production
	Oil demand/production crossover

But what about transitioning to renewable energy sources?

That would be a good idea.   But we should have started 30 years ago
to avoid a very difficult energy transition period.

Ready for the second take home message?    Be sure you are
sitting down, because the first time this really sinks in, it feels like taking
a punch to the gut:
 

2. We have, as of now, no renewable energy source, nor combination
of sources, that can scale up quickly enough, or provide anywhere
near the energy equivalent of oil, to avoid a severe, worldwide
energy shortage.

Sorry to break the news. 

Let's take a moment to re-read and digest that second take home message
(and its implications).
 

    "There is no quickly scalable and energy-equivalent substitute for oil"
         ...in terms of its energy density,  EROEI (energy returned on energy
         invested, or "net energy"), transportability, safety, range, infrastructure, and cost. 

This is quite a tragedy -- many people in poor countries will literally starve
to death because of this.

The third take home message:

3. Even if we had renewable energy sources to provide the equivalent
energy of oil at the same cost, our entire economic infrastructure
is oil, not electron or hydrogen, based.  The economy might not
be able to work as well on non-oil based energy.  For example, could
airplanes, or large mining trucks, be run on batteries?
 

So there are very grave economic and social risks starting now, and exacerbating
over the next several decades.
 

For the past century, oil has been an essentially free source of extremely
dense and useful energy.   Poke a hole in the ground in the right location,
and you get an unparalleled source of energy.  And, it can also be used to make
a variety of products such as plastics, tires, asphalt for roads, medicines, etc.

That is, when we are not burning it.

I was a firm believer in solar, wind, and geothermal energy until a few
years ago, and I still believe they will help individuals. But no combination
of these "renewable" technologies will make a notable difference at the
level of 300 million Americans, much less the 6.5 billion people in the world.
 ...No alternatives scale, and we're out of time. We made the important
decision about energy policy at two critical junctures in American history:
(1) shortly after WWII, when we created the interstate highway system
and the suburbs to build a way of life that had no future because it relied
completely on ready supplies of a finite resource, and (2) in 1980,
when we dismissed conservation at irrelevant..."
          -- Professor Guy McPherson (see this link, as well as his blog)

But what about hydrogen, and the coming "hydrogen economy?"

Take another deep breath.   Hydrogen is not a source of energy (like oil is). 

You can't poke a hole in the ground and "strike hydrogen."  It actually takes
another source of energy (such as electricity) to make hydrogen.  
Hydrogen is just a "storage medium" for energy, like a battery.
And, it is less energy efficient than a battery.

Energy Efficiency of Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Cars vs. Battery Electric Cars:

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/8/8d/Battery_EV_vs._Hydrogen_EV.png/753px-Battery_EV_vs._Hydrogen_EV.png

But what about other sources of renewable energy?

In one year the entire world produces about 1 cubic mile of oil (2006 data).  It would
take 50 years of energy production by each alternative energy source below to
accumulate the equivalent energy in 1 cubic mile of oil that the world uses now in one year.

Source:  http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3084  and http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2320 

 

To produce the energy equivalent of 1 cubic mile of oil in one year: 

...it would take:

               200 Three Gorges Dams 
            2,600 Nuclear Power Plants
            5,200 Coal Fired Plants  (not good for global warming...)
      1,642,500 Wind Turbines
4,562,500,000 Solar Panels

             Also see:  can renewable energy make a dent in fossil fuels?

The transition to renewable energy has barely started.

For example, as noted in the graphic below, today solar photovoltaic only
produces  0.04% of the world's energy.

World energy usage width chart

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:World_energy_usage_width_chart.svg

Here is a pie chart view:

Source: http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9928068-54.html

Reaching peak oil production is bad enough.  But it gets worse...

   ...additional factors that will likely further exacerbate the problem:

1. China and India are now growing massive middle classes. 

They want cars, and this desire will substantially drive
up the worldwide demand for oil.   

The State of California consumes more oil every year than does
the entire country of China (source).   Populations:  California, 37
million; China, 1.3 billion.  Only about 1 out of 70 people in China
currently own a car.   The rest would like to. Car sales in China are
up more than 800% since 2000 (source).

 

Source:  http://www.travelinsurance.org/energy-consumption/
 

 

China has recently gotten a jump start on developing renewable energy industries,
as noted in this video clip from the Science Channel program Powering the Future:

 

                                  
 

            
                    Source: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012565355_chinatech.html

 

How ironic it would be if we switched our dependency on foreign countries
for our oil to foreign sources for our renewable energy technology
and manufacturing.

 

2. As noted above, current renewable energy sources are far less "energy dense"
than fossil fuels, and they are not rapidly scalable.

 

For example, we might hope that the batteries in electric cars could store
as much energy as does gasoline.    No, they don't come close.

Today, the advanced Tesla Roadster has a lithium-ion battery pack weighing
900 pounds, which delivers just 190 MJ of energy. In contrast, a 10-gallon tank
of gasoline weighs 62 pounds and delivers 1,200 MJ of energy. To provide
the equivalent energy to a typical gasoline car, an electric-car battery pack would
need to consume resources weighing 5,700 pounds, nearly the weight of the
last Hummer model.
       -- David Fridley.  Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6854#more

Table comparing the energy densities of some alternative fuels
(energy density by weight):

Source:  Kurt Zenz House and Alex Johnson, “The Limits of Energy Storage Technology,” Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists Web edition, January 20, 2009,
http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/kurt-zenz-house/the-limits-of-energy-storage-technology.
Also reproduced here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6854#more

A few relevant quotes regarding the energy density of alternative fuels:

"No combination of conservation measures, alternative energy sources,
and technological advances could realistically and economically
provide a way to completely replace [oil] imports in the short or medium term."
    -- Stuart McGill, Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President

"Based on everything we know right now, no combination of (renewable
energy sources)... will even permit us to operate a substantial fraction
of the systems we currently run -- in everything from food production and
manufacturing to electric power generation...   We are in trouble."
  -- James Howard Kunstler, "The Long Emergency"

"No combination of renewable energy systems have the potential to
generate more than a fraction of the power now being generated
by fossil fuels."
  -- Jay Hanson

"In our own day, we must eventually  move to lower grade energy
resources as we slowly run out of oil.  Therefore, we might expect
the transition from oil to oil alternatives to be a decisively less
successful energy transition than previous energy transitions in
history, since all the previous transitions were from low grade to
high grade energy resources, and the coming oil transition is from
a high energy resource of oil to lower grade energy resources."
  -- Professor Douglas Reynolds, oil and energy economist

"If someone, somewhere, comes up with a source of
power that is safe, inexpensive, and for all intents and purposes
inexhaustible, then we, the Chinese, the Indians, and everyone
else on the planet can keep on truckin’. Barring that, the car of
the future may turn out to be no car at all."
  -- Elizabeth Kolbert, Running on Fumes, The New Yorker, 11/5/07
 

3. Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), or "net energy,"  is falling. 

...society's excitement about tar sand is like an alcoholic coming into a
bar and finding the taps have run dry. But after years of customers
spilling beer on the carpet, he knees down and tries to wring out
a few drops of booze from the carpet.
      -- Frederic Malter

 

The real underlying problem is not peak oil, but declining "net energy"
or "EROEI" (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) for oil.

This is one of the most foundational peak oil concepts to understand.
It doesn't matter how much oil is in the ground -- what matters
is how expensive it is to get it, as well as how fast you can get it
out of the ground (the flow rate).

To get 100 barrels of oil in 1930, it took only 1 barrel of oil energy.
In 1970 the ratio had dropped to about 30:1.  Now that ratio has fallen to
about 10:1.  Once this ratio falls to 1:1, it will take more than one barrel
of oil to extract one barrel of oil.  Game over.
(More info here and here; also see "Why EROI Matters" by Professor
Charles Hall, and Net Energy and Jevons' Paradox, John Michael Greer.)
 

Source: http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/5500

 

With the EROEI of oil declining, we might hope that we could turn to
other, alternative energy sources with equal, or higher, EROEIs.    As of
now, we have no such alternatives.
 

Source: Nine Challenges of Alternative Energy, by David Fridley
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6854#more

Note the EROEI of ethanol.   Surprisingly, it is an energy sink -- it consumes
more energy to produce ethanol than it provides.

Here is a video clip that explores this topic from the Science Channel program
Powering the Future:

 

                                    
 

So, more important than peak oil is "peak net energy."

Note in the following charts how rapidly the EROEI for oil declines
after peak oil.   The Hubbert Curve is symmetrical; unfortunately,
the Net Energy Hubbert Curve is not -- it looks more like a shark fin.  The downside
of the curve is more like falling off of a cliff.

 

http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/5500

 

The above net oil energy graph, once its implications sink in, is shocking and disturbing.

 

The Net Energy Cliff for Domestically Produced U.S. Oil

Source:  http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3685#comment-311063

 

Total domestic U.S. domestic oil projection (EIA) in mbpd (black) with sensitivity
on net available to society (green). 

Could U.S. domestic "net oil energy" fall to zero by 2022?

Source:  http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2367

 

4. Oil exporting countries will reduce (or stop) exporting oil when they cannot
meet their own growing internal demand for oil. 

 

Because the U.S. reached peak oil in 1970, as noted above,
our domestic oil production has declined ever since.   Where did
we get the oil we needed after that point?  From foreign countries.
 

 

Source: PickensPlan.com

Today the U.S. sends over 700 billion dollars a year to foreign
countries to purchase oil.   Our economy can't take that
kind of financial hemorrhaging for long.

Further, as those foreign countries reach peak oil, and their own
oil production begins to decline, they will have less oil to export. 

For example, the U.S. gets much of its oil from Mexico; however
Mexico will be unlikely to meet its own internal demand for oil
within a decade -- there will be none left to export to the US.   
(See "Net Oil Exports and the Iron Triangle" by Jeffrey Brown.)

Compared to 2007, in 2008, Mexican oil production dropped 6.4% and
their oil exports fell by 14%.
(Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/24/business/LA-FIN-Mexico-Oil-Production.php).

 

 

Source: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5416#more

Also see the article: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico
 

The "Export Land Model" by Jeffrey Brown suggests that, as world oil production declines,
while at the same time world oil consumption increases, the amount of
oil available for export from oil producing countries to oil importing countries
will decrease over time.

 

Source:  http://www.fxstreet.com/futures/market-review/outside-the-box/2008-05-20.html

 

Ironically, as U.S. oil production further declines, we will
become increasingly dependent on oil imports in the future. 
(While our politicians continue to talk about oil independence as
if that was a realistic possibility...)

 

Source: GraphOilogy February 27, 2006

 

So the next time you hear a politician talk about U.S. fossil fuel
energy independence...  well, you get the idea.
 

5. Higher Oil Prices Cause Price Inflation.

As the cost of energy rises, the prices of everything else made with
oil and oil energy also rises.  What is made of oil, or made using oil
energy?   Almost everything we use today (More info here.)

6. Oil hoarding.

Once it becomes clear that world oil production is on an inexorable decline,
and that oil prices are on an ever upward trend, oil hoarding will begin.
Some oil may simply not be for sale, at any price. 

 

Source: http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2010070377026

 

Oil prices (in real terms) will spiral upward in a self-reinforcing, yet
volatile, feedback loop.
(More on this: see this article.)

Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots'
then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and
immediately. ...as soon as Peak Oil is recognized that for all practical
purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and vicious
"resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will
begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging
hoarding mentality in large end-users, governments, and
multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects...
   --Steven Lagavulin   (source)
 

Taken together, all of these factors will make the transition to renewable energy
very painful and difficult.  

Here is a brief video clip that explores our denial about oil depletion as our
"blind spot."   All of us alive today have always had access to relatively cheap
and energy dense oil and gasoline.  It is hard to imagine a world without it.

Trailer from the film Blind Spot:

 

                             
 

 

Part 3: Possible economic and social scenarios following peak oil.

        "Alas, poor world, what treasure hast thou lost!"
                           -- William Shakespeare (Venus and Adonis)

Without the quick development of dense, renewable and rapidly scalable energy
sources, we may be in for a very difficult ride ahead.  If we don't act
now, oil may be to modern industrial/technological civilization what trees
were to the Easter Islanders, what grape juice was to the yeast colony,
and what grass was to the St. Mathew Island reindeer. 
 

Cheap, abundant energy is the oxygen of modern civilization.

There is no substitute for energy. The whole edifice of modern society is
built upon it. It is not "just another commodity" but the precondition of
all commodities, a basic factor equal with air, water and earth.
       -- E. F. Schumacher (1973)

...the real basis of any economy is energy. The horror of our current situation
is that we're losing access to our main source of energy. When that goes, the
economy will go with it.
       -- "lodo_bear," http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,71976.0.htm
 

 

         Video:  World Peak Oil Song

 

          

 

 

When critical resources are decreasing, game theorists call this
situation a negative sum game.  Such "shrinking overall pie" situations
can often lead to intense conflict, unless social structures are developed to
help to enable cooperation, and, in the case of peak oil, a massive
effort to develop renewable energy is started immediately.

Whether we will have enough time at that point to make
the transition to renewable energy is the question.
 

                   
                              Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jul/11/peak-oil-energy-disruption
 

So, what does this mean for me?  For example, what will a gallon
of gasoline likely cost in the future?

 

Superhighways, coast to coast. Easy to get anywhere. On the transcontinental over road, just climb behind the wheel. How does it feel? When there's no destination that's too far? And somewhere on the way, you might find out who you are...     -- "Living in America," James Brown, song lyrics.

 

 

Ok, let's bring this home to what we all understand -- gasoline prices.  

Historically, the price of a gallon of gasoline has been about the price
of a barrel of oil divided by 20, with a lag of up to a year and a half.
According to this historical relationship, oil at $200 a gallon might
equate to gasoline at $10 a gallon.

The graphic below of the historical and projected world oil supply, demand, and price
suggests that by about 2013 we might be paying substantially higher prices for
a gallon of gasoline -- perhaps $10 a gallon.
How would that affect you?  How would it affect the world economy?

Source:  http://www.theoildrum.com

Alternately, the price might not increase in a deflationary monetary environment.  However,
when many people are jobless and don't have much money, even the current price of gas
will be unaffordable.
 

The Economic Impacts of Peak Oil

"The challenge over the next several decades is to manage the consequences
of unavoidable dependence on oil and gas that is traded in world markets
and to begin the transition to an economy that relies less on petroleum.
The longer the delay, the greater will be the subsequent trauma
...the transition could be especially disruptive."
      -- Council on Foreign Relations. "Independent Task Force Report #58
             "National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency"
              http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/EnergyTFR.pd
 

"Humans encountered a giant lottery ticket in fossil fuels. As the gradient
began to dissipate in 1970s consuming nations replaced it with debt,
imported energy, and borrowing from nature, future, and thin air."
    -- Nate Hagens http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5422#more

 

The graph below shows the percent of total world gross domestic product (GDP)
(economic output) that is spent on oil.   The vertical axis is price, the horizontal
axis is world oil production per year.   The graph is a bit difficult to interpret
because there is no axis for time.  However, each dot represents a particular
year, and time would pretty much correspond to the horizontal axis of oil production
per year.  Note that as oil production has maxed out, the percent of world
GDP spent on oil has shot up.  With oil at $135 a barrel, the dot would be up above
the top of the graph at about 6.5%. 


Graph: Percent of world economic output spent on oil.

 

           
              Source:  http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html (see May, 2008 article)

Kenneth Deffeyes, who developed the graph, goes on to say:

"Multiplying production (barrels per year) times the oil price (dollars per barrel)
gives a total cost in dollars per year. It's an enormous number; tens of trillions
of dollars per year...  Oil production obviously cannot consume 100 percent
of the world's income.   My intuitive, uninformed guess is that it cannot go
above 15 percent. If we see oil at $300 per barrel, we will be looking out
over the smoldering ruins of the world's economy."
 

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on
his not understanding it.
     --Upton Sinclair

 

(There is) speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about
a future (oil) supply crunch than they have admitted... The (British) Department of
Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is also refusing to hand over policy documents
about "peak oil"... under the Freedom of Information Act... (because discussions)
are "ongoing" and "high profile" in nature.   ...an internal IEA (International Energy
Administration) source said: "there are fears that panic could spread on the financial
markets if the (IEA projected future oil production) figures were brought down further.

  -- From article "Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks,"  The Observer, Guardian.co.uk
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change

Brief answer: Governments  and corporations are not in the business of communicating
bad news to their constituents (although ethically they should), especially
when such bad news will threaten  short term profits or chances of
re-election.   They are "near-sighted."

The first sobering "heads up" was presented by geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1956. 
He warned that  oil production in the lower US 48 states would peak in 1970.  

In 1957, Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover gave a speech in which he warned about the future
decline in fossil fuel resources, and he stressed the need to tell the younger
generation.  However, there were no warnings about peak oil from the government.

U.S. oil production did peak in 1970, just as had Hubbert predicted in 1956.  
He also warned that world oil production would peak sometime around 2000.  
Given that Hubbert had already gotten one prediction right, you might think
that the government and corporations would warn us about the predicted
2000 world oil production peak. 

They didn't. 

In her article, Peak Oil and Politicians, Kelpie Wilson, notes:

Since 1956, the world economy has proceeded under a sort
of oil company spell that has woven the illusion all around us
that oil depletion is so far into the future that we don't
need to worry about it. That belief was essential to support
the aim of an endlessly growing economy.

 ...Today, despite skyrocketing oil prices, most politicians
still avoid the term "peak oil." Most of the media still treat
peak oil advocates with skepticism, using epithets like "fringe"
and "so-called" to describe peak oil theory

When speaking of energy issues, politicians will often use
the euphemism of energy security, acknowledging that the US
has only three percent of the world's oil reserves and warning
that most of the rest of it belongs to unfriendly or unstable
governments. While there is truth to this type of statement,
it sets up a framework for conflict by creating the perception
that there is plenty of oil left but bad people are keeping it
away from us.  Both Democrats and Republicans buy into this view.
In this election season, some Democrats seem even more willing
than Republicans to play the oil fear card and promote quick-fix
measures that are ineffectual or downright ridiculous.

 ...After years of toning down the message of peak oil in public
discourse, voters need to let candidates know that now is the
time to tone it up.
 

From 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked, until today, when world oil production
is peaking, instead of warning us about peak oil, the U.S. leaders allowed us to
became increasingly dependent on foreign oil by failing to start a massive program
to produce renewable energy.

President Carter did make a bit of an effort to warn us.  In a televised televised
speech on April 18, 1977, Carter said:

Tonight I want to have an unpleasant talk with you about a problem unprecedented
in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the greatest
challenge our country will face during our lifetimes. The energy crisis
has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly.

 ...The most important thing about these proposals is that the alternative
may be a national catastrophe. Further delay can affect our strength
and our power as a nation.

Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people
and the ability of the President and the Congress to govern. This difficult
effort will be the "moral equivalent of war" -- except that we will be uniting
our efforts to build and not destroy.

 

Here is a video of this speech:
 

                              

 

This theme was expanded in his July 15th, 1979 "Crisis of Confidence"  speech. Carter
warned that the 1979 oil crisis was the "moral equivalent of war."  He also said:
"We believed that our nation's resources were limitless until 1973, when we had
to face a growing dependence on foreign oil."  Note that he came close, but he
didn't quite explain why our oil resources were not "limitless."

President Carter set the following national goals in that speech (goals, which in
retrospect, were a stunning failure):

Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign
oil than we did in 1977 -- never. From now on, every new addition to our
demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation.

 ...I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds
and resources in our nation's history to develop America's own alternative
sources of fuel -- from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol,
from unconventional gas, from the sun.

I propose the creation of an energy security corporation to lead this effort
to replace 2-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day by 1990. The corporation
I will issue up to $5 billion in energy bonds...

 ...we will mobilize American determination and ability to win the energy war. Moreover,
I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this
nation's first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent
of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000.

Wait... did he say 20 percent of our energy would be from solar power
by the year 2000?  Did he say that we would reduce imported oil to zero by 1990?

Most egregiously, President Carter never really explicitly mentioned the words "peak oil."
He never mentioned the more general problem of world oil depletion, or the declining
world oil EROEI.   He did not mention that renewable sources of energy could not
replace the equivalent amount of energy provided by oil.

Had the real, underlying problem been clearly articulated back then, might things have turned
out differently 30 years later?   What if, back in 1979, President Carter had mentioned
that oil production in the U.S. had peaked nine years ago, and we were on a
irreversible decline?   What if he had mentioned that Hubbert had forecasted that peak,
and that we had only about 20 years to prepare before Hubbert's prediction that
world oil production would peak around the year 2000?

At least President Carter mentioned the general problem, albeit without mentioning
peak oil.   To be fair, none of the subsequent presidents have ever mentioned
the words "peak oil" in public, either.

In 1980 Carter proclaimed, in what came to be called the Carter Doctrine,  that the
U.S. would intervene militarily if our oil supply from the mid-east was threatened.
Apparently he was aware that renewable sources of energy were not going to
replace oil quickly enough, despite his earlier comments to the contrary.

In 1993, President Clinton, along with the heads of the major U.S. car companies,
launched the Partnership for the New Generation of Vehicles.  By 1997, they had
produced an 72 mpg concept "supercar" that would be a diesel-hybrid combination.  After a
billion dollars of government money, in 2000 the concept cars were wheeled out.

But none were actually sold to consumers.  Why? Isn't it rather strange to spend
over a billion dollars of taxpayer money to develop a 72mpg car, but then not
insure that it is actually available to consumers for purchase?

To view a PBS Frontline video on this topic, see: 
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/video/flv/generic.html?s=frol02s1514q4b7&continuous=1
 

By 2002 the U.S. government scrapped the project. 

However, in 2001 President G. W. Bush created the Energy Task Force -- its
purpose was to "develop a national energy policy... (to) promote dependable,
affordable, and environmentally sound production and distribution of energy
for the future." Then Vice President Dick Cheney was named to chair the group.
Major oil companies met in secret with the Energy Task Force to help to
develop national energy policy.  Despite requests made on the basis of the Freedom of
Information Act the details of these meetings were never made public.   In
non-sworn testimony before the U. S. Senate, several energy companies that
were believed to have participated in these meetings denied doing so.

Here is a video clip of this Senate testimony:

 

                                 
                                            Video clip from the film "Fuel" see: http://www.thefuelfilm.com/

 

In the video clip below, Jon Stewart skewers the last 8 US Presidents.  They all promised
to reduce our addiction to foreign oil, and all promised to promote the rapid development
of alternative, clean renewable energy.  

None of them delivered.

                   

           

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
An Energy-Independent Future
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Tea Party

Source: http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

Further, none of them have used the term "peak oil" and then fully described what
it is, and the consequences it will likely have.

It is likely that government officials at the highest levels are very aware
of peak oil and its implications, but they are afraid to speak of it directly.
 

(There is) speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about
a future (oil) supply crunch than they have admitted... The (British) Department of
Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is also refusing to hand over policy documents
about "peak oil"... under the Freedom of Information Act... (because discussions)
are "ongoing" and "high profile" in nature.   ...an internal IEA (International Energy
Administration) source said: "there are fears that panic could spread on the financial
markets if the (IEA projected future oil production) figures were brought down further.

  -- From article "Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks,"  The Observer, Guardian.co.uk
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change

 

Even the main stream media, which "...frequently brags on its role as the public’s
watchdog..." is asleep at the wheel.  
(See:  The Silent Side of Oil: Press needs to pump information on peak supply by
Katherine Bagley, in the Columbia Journalism Review.  And:  While the Watchdog Sleeps.)

News that is unfolding in slow motion seems to get far less attention than far
less important, but fast moving, "breaking news" stories.   We rarely hear newscasters
say breathlessly: "Now, in slow breaking news, preparations for the coming energy
famine are being supported by governments and large corporations around the world..."

Here is a video parody of how the mainstream media has failed to inform us about peak oil,
while giving us far more information about celebrity gossip than we really need to know.

 

               

 

If a bus is barreling down the street toward you, don't your leaders, and the
mainstream media, have an ethical duty to warn you?  
 

Although we have not gotten a clear warning about peak oil from most
top government and business leaders, or from the majority of the
main stream media, the word is now starting to get out.

A very small group of U.S. congressional representatives -- the US Congressional
Peak Oil Caucus, with representatives Udall and Bartlett, is sounding a warning.  
But this issue is so  important, it should be coming from the very top national and
international leaders.

One warning that did come from the main stream media was the CNN production "We Were
Warned: Out of Gas" with Frank Sesno.
( http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/14/bts.sesno.gas/index.html )
 

 

From the video transcript: 

Frank Sesno: What is your worst case scenario?

Mathew Simmons: My worst case scenario is so bad
    that you don't want to go there.

(Source: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0706/02/siu.01.html )

 

Also, CNBC ran an special program in October 2008 about the problem:

 

For some video clips from the program, see this link: 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26334704

 

And, recently a British industry task force made a sobering warning: an
oil crunch is coming by 2015.   (See the British Industry Taskforce on
Peak Oil & Energy Security.)   It is disappointing that this warning did not
also come from the British government.
 

             

                Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/virgins-richard-branson-predicts-oil-crunch-by-2015-2010-2

 

Finally, on June 16, 2010 in his first televised address to the nation, President Obama
described the problem (albeit without mentioning the term: "peak oil").  It took
the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico to prompt it:

" ... oil is a finite resource. We consume more than 20% of the world’s oil,
but have less than 2% of the world’s oil reserves. And that’s part of the
reason oil companies are drilling a mile beneath the surface of the
ocean – because we’re running out of places to drill on land and in
shallow water.

For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible
oil were numbered. For decades, we have talked and talked about the
need to end America’s century-long addiction to fossil fuels. And for decades,
we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires.
Time and again, the path forward has been blocked – not only by oil
industry lobbyists, but also by a lack of political courage and candor."

 

Here is a video clip of this part of his speech:

 

                         

 

Whew.  It took awhile, didn't it? 

Wait... but he still didn't mention peak oil, did he?  At least he came close.

 

 

"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling
expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we
are entering a period of consequences."
      -- Winston Churchill, November 1939

In 1977 Barry Commoner wrote in The Politics of Energy that we must
begin developing renewable energy now because the remaining oil
reserves themselves will be needed to serve as the transitional medium
to build a renewable energy infrastructure. 

That was over 30 years ago.  

More recently, Dr. Robert Hirsch, in a study sponsored by
the U.S. Department of Energy titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, & Risk Management concluded that to avoid serious impacts, a peak oil
mitigation crash program must start 20 years before peak oil.  We apparently are at peak
oil now, and the crash mitigation program has yet to begin.

Again, the critical issue is this: once peak oil and its potential consequences
become generally known and accepted, will there be enough time to make
the transition to renewable energy sources quickly enough to avoid major
economic and social disruptions?  

Will the last precious barrels of oil be used to power SUVs, or will they
be used to build the renewable energy infrastructure that is
needed to avoid an energy famine?

For now, what currently available sources of renewable sources of energy
can help to at least mitigate the upcoming energy famine?

Let's evaluate several sources of energy in terms of their current potential.

The data in the tables are my rough estimates, and, could be a bit off the mark.

Point values in the tables below: 

5 - Very Good
4 - Good
3 - Medium
2 - Poor
1 - Very Poor

  

CURRENT ENERGY SOURCES:

 

	EROEI*(estimated EROEI in parens)	Energy Density	Easily Stored	Easily Transported	Safety	Easily Used for Transport-ation	Low Infrast-ructure Costs	Summary Score (Average)
NON- RENEWALBE, FINITE ENERGY SOURCES:
Oil	5 (20)	5	5	5	4	5	5	4.8
Coal	3   (9)	4	4	4	5	2	3	3.5
Natural Gas	5 (20)	4	3	2	2	2	4	3.1
Nuclear	1  (4)	5	5	5	3	2	2	3.3
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES:
Hydro (dams)	4 (11)	3	5	1	3	2	3	3.0
Wind	3 (7?)	2	2	2	5	2	4	2.8
Solar PV	3 (5)	2	2	2	5	2	4	2.8
Biomass Ethanol	1(1.3)	4	4	4	4	4	4	3.5
Geo- thermal	2 (6)	3	2	1	4	2	3	2.4
Ocean waves / tides	2 (?)	3	2	1	4	2	2 (?)	2.3

*EROEI:  "Energy Returned on Energy Invested."   Approximate EROEI values are in parenthesis.
E.g., a score of 2 means that twice as much energy is returned as energy invested;
an oil EROEI of 20 means it would take one barrel of oil ("invested") to produce 20 barrels of oil ('returned").
Reference source for EROEI figures:  http://eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.htm 
Also, see article on energy density here.

What is most disconcerting is that there is no renewable energy source
that comes close to the energy advantages of oil, especially with respect
to its energy density and its "net energy" (or "EROEI" -- energy returned on
energy invested).

 

POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL CURRENT ENERGY SOURCES AS A FUTURE,
LONG TERM ENERGY SOURCE:

  

	Summary Score (from previous table)	Low depletion rate	Low Greenhouse Gases	Low Future Costs	Summary Score (Average)
NON- RENEWALBE, FINITE ENERGY SOURCES:
Oil	4.8	2	2	2	2.7
Coal	3.5	3	1	3	2.6
Natural Gas	3.1	1	2	1	1.8
Nuclear	3.3	2	5	2	2.8
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES:
Hydro (dams)	3.0	3	5	3	3.5
Wind	2.8	5	5	5	4.5
Solar PV	2.8	5	5	5	4.5
Biomass Ethanol	3.5	3	3	3	2.8
Geo- thermal	2.4	4	5	4	3.9
Ocean waves / tides	2.3	5	5	3	3.8

 

RANK ORDERING OF CURRENT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
(based on the above tables):

For more discussion about the pros and cons of various forms of
energy, see:

Energy in a Nutshell, by Alice Friedemann. Also see
Peak Oil and Alternative Energy -- why there is no good alternative to oil
(in terms of net energy). 
Peak Oil: Alternatives, Renewables, And Impact, by Clifford Wirth, Ph.D.
Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth, by oil and energy
economist Douglas Reynolds.  "In our own day, we must eventually
move to lower grade energy resources as we slowly run out of oil.
Therefore, we might expect the transition from oil to oil alternatives
to be a decisively less successful energy transition than previous
energy transitions in history, since all the previous transitions were
from low grade to high grade energy resources, and the coming oil
transition is from a high energy resource of oil to lower grade energy resources."

 

However, one problem with transitioning to renewable energy
is that the volatility of oil prices can kill free market attempts to develop
renewable energy.   That is, renewable energy projects that could be profitable with
high oil prices go bankrupt when oil prices drop (due to economic contractions
caused, ironically, by the high oil prices themselves).   This is one argument why
governments need to be involved in supporting renewable energy.   They need
to guarantee that oil prices, due to temporary price volatility, don't decline below a level
that would kill off renewable energy projects.
 

                Source: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/oil-headfake07-10.html

For more on this see: Oil Head-Fake Update: Why Alt Energy Will Never "Pencil Out."

Will a scientific breakthrough come in time to save us from a worldwide
energy famine?

 "...the tactic of using the remaining fossil fuels to prepare to prepare for a post-fossil fuel
future is a matter of buying time until "they," the scientist-nerd-innovator-geniuses,
come up with a new a superior energy source.  For all I know, this miracle will occur.
 ...but it puts the human race into a jam, cramming for a final exam that it can't
afford to lose."
   -- James Howard Kunstler, "The Long Emergency"

"As a scientist I have asked myself: What is the most challenging problem that science
and technology must solve in the coming decades? It is going to be sustainable energy.
If we can't solve that, we have got a real problem."
     -- Dr. Steven Chew,  Secretary of the U.S. Dept of Energy
 

I had a colleague and good friend who contracted a deadly form of ovarian
cancer.   She was a scientist, and she investigated the medical literature herself.
She read every research article she could find.  She was convinced that if
she could live another five years (the limit of her prognosis), a breakthrough
cure might be found in time to save her.  

Tragically, a technofix did not come in time.

A scientific breakthrough cure for our terminal energy decline might come in time, or,
it might not.   To save us, the breakthrough must provide renewable, dense,
clean, safe, and transportable energy that can scale up rapidly, with an EROEI
equivalent, or better, than that of oil.
 

In short, we need an energy source scientific discovery "miracle" to avoid the coming
energy famine.   Bill Gates is aware of this.

 

Source:  http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/02/12/bill.gates.clean.energy/index.html

 

As are others...

 

           

To download the report:
    http://www.postcarbon.org/new-site-files/Reports/Searching_for_a_Miracle_web10nov09.pdf

However, keep in mind that, as was the case with my friend, there
are no guarantees that a scientific miracle technofix will come in time.  

 

What will happen if we don't make the transition to renewable energy in time?
     

"So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late."
       -- Bob Dylan

 "Running low on gas...  "
              -- Amelia Earhart

" ...the oil economy is going away. While it is still here, we can use it to fuel
the transition to the energy economy of the future. If it goes away before we've
done it, we are screwed."
      -- Omri Schwarz, http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2006/1/11/23344/7099

"Finding a new source of energy to replace fossil fuels may
be the most daunting task ever to face mankind."
    -- Jim Puplava
 

                  

 

If we do not quickly transition to rapidly scalable and energy dense renewable energy,
the predictions made in the following graphs paint some very grim scenarios.

Caution:  The graphics below are pretty explicit.

As you review these graphs, keep in mind that these nightmares are not in some
distant future.  They may arrive in less than one or two decades from now.

 

Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3091


Note in the graph above that, without some type of scientific energy
breakthrough,  the low energy density of current renewable energy
sources (in green) result in renewable energy sources that barely
make a dent in the total energy picture. 

Surprising, isn't it? 

And, disturbing.
 

A possible scenario for total world energy use.

Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3091

 

A very sobering projection for possible world population resulting
from an energy famine (and consequent food famine).  Like the
reindeer of St. Mathew Island, we have no special dispensation from ecological
overshoot and population collapse.

 

Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3091
Also see: Peak Oil and famine: Four Billion Deaths, by Peter Goodchild  and the
Time Magazine article After the Oil Crisis, a Food Crisis?

Yes, the graph above suggests that billions of people may have an early,
unpleasant demise if the oil (i.e., energy) depletion problem is not solved. 
Soon.   

This isn't just about forgoing a summer vacation road trip.       
 

But weren't predictions of doom made before, and they didn't happen?

Yes.  Some previous predictions of population collapse did not come true. 

Paul R. Ehrlich predicted in his 1968 book The Population Bomb that a mass
starvation would occur in the 1970s or 1980s.  It didn't.   The green revolution scientific
technofix literally arrived just in time with new agricultural pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation,
and the breeding of high yielding crops.

However, this still did not prevent  famine, or the severe malnourishment, of people
in many countries.

Even today, hunger is common for one in six people on the planet.
 

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090619/ap_on_re_eu/eu_un_world_hunger
 

As with the fable, calling "Wolf!" too often will get you ignored.   But do you
recall what happened at the end of the story?  

Yes, the wolf finally did arrive. 

The book Limits to Growth also made some pretty frightening predictions back in 1972,
as did the follow up book Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update in 2004.

 

 

Here are the original predictions that were made in 1972:
 

 

Instead of falsely calling "wolf," these predictions appear to be on track
as of today.
 

Several prominent scientists, including Jared Diamond, Stephen Hawking,
and E. O. Wilson, concur that the consequences of human ecological overshoot are likely
to be severe by 2050. 

Several books have recently explored some these predictions:

    

   

 

   

   

    

   

 

In June, 2009, American ABC News presented a special video documentary:

Whoa...  wait a second.  All of this is getting just way too negative
and scary for me!  Can't we go back to reviewing possible technofixes? 
Ray Kurzweil and others are still optimists -- what would they say?

  
Indeed, as noted at the outset,  Kurzweil and others have suggested
that the increase in the rate of computer power, human knowledge,
and scientific advances related to energy production are on an upward
geometric progression.

Some of these possible energy technofixes were explored in a four part
Science Channel television series called Powering the Future, hosted
by Dr. M. A. Sanjayan.   Below is a screen shot of the TV series web site:

 

To see some video clips from the series, see the website:

    http://science.discovery.com/tv/powering-the-future/
 

Here is one video clip from the program that focuses on the need
to rapidly develop a crash program to develop renewable energy:

 

                            
 

Areas where we desperately need to see a breakthrough scientific discovery.

Again, keep this in mind: current renewable energy sources have low ERORIs, are
not energy dense, and would take too long to scale up to avoid an energy famine.

We need a renewable energy miracle breakthrough.  Below are some
possibilities -- keep your fingers crossed that one of them provides an
energy source techofix breakthrough.   Soon.  Very soon -- we don't have
much time left.

1. Nuclear fusion.  Fifty years ago they said it would be ready in fifty years.  Ahh... not.
            Now when do they say it will be ready?  Fifty years from now...   (I am not putting
            my bet on this.)

2. Solar photovoltaic.   Can it scale up rapidly?  Can its efficiency be increased?  Can
            its cost be radically reduced?   Can it avoid using rare earth minerals?

3. Oil made by genetically modified algae via photosynthesis.
          Can it scale up rapidly?  What is the EROEI?  Can genetic breakthroughs
            to modify algae come in time?

Keep an eye on this one -- it might work and it might scale up rapidly. 
For more information see:

Video: J. Craig Venter's TED talk (algae comments start at 13:00 into the video)
Video: FORA.tv  J. Craig Venter Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention
Video: Brink episode on algae to oil.
Newsweek article:  A Bug to Save the Planet. Genome pioneer Craig Venter wants to
make a bacterium that will eat CO2 and produce fuel.
Website: http://www.oilgae.com/
But, for a more sobering view, see Book Review: Green Algae Strategy

                      Here is a video clip re algea to oil from the film "Fuel."
 

                                       
                                 For more info re the film "Fuel" see: http://www.thefuelfilm.com/

 

4. Some other energy breakthrough.

A different, exotic energy breakthrough may be in the labs
now.  The question is:  can it be brought to market and
scale up rapidly?
 

Like you, I hope Kurzweil is right, and I hope that some of the possible
solutions outlined in the video programs above are correct.   But even
the experts interviewed on these video programs clearly stated several times
that we don't have much time left to transition to clean, renewable energy.  

The outcome of Kurzweil vs. Malthus match is still open for betting.

One thing we can all agree on:  the more we delay, the more the odds move
in favor of Malthus.

Personal reactions to peak oil.

"...something is happening here but you don't know what it is
 do you, Mr. Jones?"
       -- Bob Dylan, song lyrics (Ballad of a Thin Man)

"(After giving a talk on peak oil)... there’s always one guy at the
back whose head has seized up like a crashed computer and who’s desperately
trying to reboot to a more familiar welcome screen. He’s the one spewing
out a dozen variations on 'This can’t be so.' "
-- Dave Hughes (source)   
 

"Those of use who are alive today have always taken fossil fuels for granted.
We've always had them around. It doesn't matter if you are 20 years old
or 70 years old, we've all grown up during this unique, historic period
of cheap abundant energy from coal, oil, and natural gas."
      -- Richard Heinberg, from the film "Blind Spot"
 

Denial vs. Catastrophizing

There seems to be a spectrum of reactions to peak oil, especially when first
learning about the problem.  On one end are the deniers; on the other end
of the spectrum are the catastrophizers. 

Jews in Germany in 1939 paid a dear price for denial.   Those who saw
a catastrophe ahead left the country.  (The film "Nowhere in Africa," and the
book by the same name, is a true story about a Jewish family that decided to
uproot themselves from their home in Germany and flee to Africa.  Some of their
extended family and friends who remained in Germany did not survive.)

On the other end of the spectrum from denial is catastrophizing.  
Catastrophizing is believing the worst possible situation will happen,
and imagining it vividly, to the point of obsession.   We all did this as teenagers
when we found a pimple on our face and couldn't imagine facing our school mates
the next day.   We got over it.

But, some didn't. Catasrophizers under the mind control of religious
zealots have many times throughout history believed the end of the
world was nigh -- and sold all of their possessions in their anticipation of
their ascension into the rapturous light.  It was a bit embarrassing when the
target date passed uneventfully.  Sometimes they re-set the date.  And waited.
Sometimes they made it a self-fulfilling prophesy by drinking suicidal or
homicidal Kool-aid.

It would be interesting to compare peak oil catastrophizers vs.
peak oil deniers.  Most likely there are some personality or developmental
background differences there.

Bottom line: the future is very, very hard to predict.  However, doing some best
estimate risk management is still prudent.  My house is unlikely to burn down,
but I still buy fire insurance.
 

First step: Let's all admit that we have a serious, self-destructive
addition to oil.

     
Source: http://oilcrash.com/articles/t_shirts.htm

As "oilcoholics," the first step is admitting that as a society that we have a serious problem,
something that is akin to a self-destructive addiction.

 

Second Step:  Work Though the Stages of Oil Depletion Grief -- both
        on a personal and on a social level.

We may only be in the first stage (or entering stage two?) of oil
depletion grief.  It may generally follow this progression:

1. Denial.   "Peak oil?  Baloney! There's lots of oil left.  No worries, mate."

2. Anger.   "It's the damn ________'s (oil companies, governments, OPEC, etc.) fault
that oil prices  are going up.  They're gouging us.  The bastards!"

3. Bargaining.  "But what about new oil discovery technologies?  What about biofuels?
I can keep my SUV, right?  Someone, or some new discovery will save us ...right?"

4. Depression.  "Damn... no renewable energy source is as energy dense as oil, or quickly
scalable... Holy crap.  We are   _________ (in for a rough ride, doomed, etc.)"

5. Acceptance.  "Ok, even if we are in for a rough ride, what I can do?  What can I ask
my government representatives to do?  How can I make a difference?  How can I
prepare?  How can we support research into potential technological breakthroughs?"

Part 4: What can psychological science, and evolutionary psychology in particular,
offer to help to address these problems?

Can humans be "smarter than yeast?"  Can we be the only species that can
successfully avoid ecological overshoot and collapse?   These are psychological
problems -- are we psychologically sophisticated enough to manage our own
collective behavior?

Evolved adaptations (including psychological ones) are all solutions to problems
of inclusive fitness in ancestral environments.   Our ancestors' "inclusive fitness"
refers to the number of genes they projected into the next generation
via reproduction, and by helping those who shared their genes (close kin).

Inclusive fitness has been the "designer" of human psychological adaptations.

Evolution cannot look forward; it cannot anticipate what it has never encountered.
We have no psychological adaptations to avoid ecological overshoot.  In fact,
we have just the opposite.

Here's the sobering rub:

Inclusive fitness is always relative to others; it is not absolute.

That is, nature doesn't "say,"

"Have 2 kids (or help 4 full sibs), and then you can stop. Good job!
You did your genetic duty, you avoided contributing
to ecological overshoot, and you may pass along now..."

Instead, nature "says" (relative inclusive fitness):

"Out-reproduce your competitors. Your competitors
are all of the genes in your species' gene pool that you do not share. If
the average inclusive fitness score is 4, then you go for 5... "

In other words, our psychological adaptations are designed to not just "keep
up with the Joneses" but to "do better than the Joneses." This is in whatever
terms that increase inclusive fitness -- number of children, and things that
have led to them, such as status, multiple wives, resource acquisition and control, etc.

An unfortunately corollary of the relativity of inclusive fitness is that
an organism can also increase its inclusive fitness by reducing the inclusive
fitness of others. That potentially makes murder, genocide, warfare, and other
nasty stuff potential genetic pay offs.
 

Game theory

Game theorists suggest that, with every interaction with others, we have
a choice to either cooperate or to "defect."
 

 

 

For more on this see:

 

                         

 

How can we set up a situation wherein it is in everyone's interest to
both reduce oil consumption, as well as invest in renewable energy sources?

This is an example of what is called a "social trap" or a "tragedy of the commons."
 

Evolutionary psychology and the problem of the "Tragedy of the Commons"

Evolutionary psychology suggests we will tend to be altruistic (not expect
repayment) toward close kin (especially those with high reproductive value),
and we will tend to be nice to non-kin with whom we have established an
on-going, mutually beneficial reciprocal relationship. We will tend to be selfish
otherwise.  Also, we may be spiteful (hurt another even at a cost to self) to
reduce the inclusive fitness of others, especially when they are reducing our
inclusive fitness and/or the overall resource pie is shrinking.
 

Below is a very brief overview of some of the foundational concepts
related to the evolution of human behavior.
 

Some Foundational Ideas related to Evolutionary Psychology
(from Mills, 2005).

Level        Theorist   Theory       Example Adaptations

Individual Behavior	Darwin -- 1859	Natural (“survival”) & Sexual Selection	Bones, skin, vision, pain perception, etc. Peacock’s  tail, antlers, courtship behavior, etc.
Family / Kin Behavior	Hamilton - 1963	Inclusive Fitness / Kin selection	Altruism toward kin, parental investment, the behavior of the social insects with sterile workers (e.g., ants).
Repeated interactions with non-kin	Trivers - 1972	Mutualism / “Tit for Tat Reciprocity”	Cheater detection, emotions of revenge and guilt, etc.
Single interactions with non-kin	Gintis, 2002 (and others)	Generalized (or “strong”) Reciprocity	Generalized reciprocity to in-group / Generalized hostility to out-group.
Transmission of Culture / Ideas	Dawkins - 1976	Meme propagation	Language, music, evoked culture…

 

We will tend to act altruistically when certain conditions are met.
One of the them is called "Hamilton's Rule."

 

\

 

 

Obviously, we are inclined toward nepotism.
 

Strong reciprocity (or "indirect in-group reciprocity").

We tend to behave as if we still lived in small tribes as did our ancestors.
This “error” makes generalized cooperation, or "strong reciprocity," possible.
We may be willing to help strangers, without an expectation of repayment,
as long as we perceive them as members of our "tribe." It may be a set of
adaptations that were designed for small in-group cohesion during times of
high inter-tribal warfare with out-groups.

Today, the capacity to be altruistic to in-group strangers may result from a serendipitous
generalization (or "mismatch") between ancestral tribal living and today's large
societies that entail many single interactions with anonymous strangers. We think
members of our in-group are part of our "tribe."  Result: strong reciprocity -- acting
like a "good Samaritan," cognitive concepts of justice, ethics and human rights.

Ironically strong reciprocity also has a dark side.  It may also underlie adaptations
for aggression toward "out-groups," including the capacity for xenophobia,
racism, warfare, genocide.   And, for fighting over increasingly scarce resources.

Strong reciprocity is more likely to occur in a "positive sum game" (when the
entire pie is growing) because the costs of non-cooperating are higher.  One
simply has to cooperate to expect a progressively larger slice of the pie in the future.
 

So, generalized reciprocity works well when the overall resource pie is
growing (in a "positive sum game").

But, as was noted above, the Peak Oil crisis is a "shrinking energy pie" situation (a "negative
sum game").
 

A shrinking energy pie:

 

Successful adaptation to peak oil requires that the whole world to cooperate as
oil resources dwindle.   Is that possible?
 

Fooling evolved mental adaptations with "psychological illusions."

So, what are we up against to avoid ecological overshoot? Nothing less tenacious
than human nature. Hopeless? Not sure yet.

If we are to have a chance to be "smarter than yeast", we have to be
smart enough to understand and manipulate our own psychological adaptations.
We have to "fool Mother Nature."  We have to agree to fool ourselves.

Can we?  Yes.  In fact, it happens all the time today.

We can enjoy films, TV and photos because they were not part of our ancestral
environment.  We have no adaptations to counter these novel tricks -- we
often have difficulty distinguishing between virtual reality and reality.

 

For example, when we watch a TV sitcom such as "Friends" we are fooled (at least on an emotional level) into thinking the characters really are our friends. We may smile and say hello if we see Jennifer Aniston on the street (she was in our living room, after all).  But, don't expect a reciprocal response, though. To Jennifer, of course, we are an intruding stranger she has never met.

 

We cry and laugh at movies, despite the fact that we know what we are
watching is just light projected through film, the actors are reading from a
script, and there is a sound guy holding a boom mic standing just out of the frame. 
Sure, it is sad that the ship sank, but no one on the set actually drowned. 
Nevertheless, our psychological adaptations are fooled, and we may leave
the theater a bit misty.

 

So, just as we can be fooled by perceptual illusions, we can also be fooled by
psychological illusions.

Can we fool our psychological adaptations to help to live sustainably on
a finite planet? Probably.

 

Engineered social self-influence, intentionally designed activate psychological
adaptations, may help to modify our own behavior to help to mitigate
ecological challenges.    We could consent to allow government sponsored Public
Service Announcements (PSAs) -- media advertisements -- to help to change our
self-destructive oil addiction.  

PSAs have helped to reduce another self-destructive habit -- smoking:

 

                            

PSAs also help to increase the use of seat belts while driving:
 

                  

 

Here is a PSA to encourage energy conservation:
 

                              

We need many more PSAs to help to reduce our self-destructive oil addition,
and to encourage the use of renewable energy.

We might also use psychological illusions to help us "keep 'down' with the Joneses."
That is, if "down" is redefined to mean higher status.   Psychologist Robert Cialdini
has written several books about using "psychological illusions" to persuade
people to do things they otherwise might be disinclined to do. 

From the article: "Finding the 'Weapons' of Persuasion to Save Energy:"

In one San Diego suburb, Cialdini's team went door to door, ringing
the doorknobs with signs about energy conservation. There were
four types of signs, and each home received one randomly, every week,
...for a month. The first sign urged the homeowner to save energy for the
environment's sake; the second said to do it for future generations'
benefit. The third sign pointed to the cash savings that would come from
conservation. The fourth sign featured Cialdini's trick: "The
majority of your neighbors are undertaking energy saving actions every
day."

 ...(Cialdini also) decided to target the below-average energy users
with a special message.

"When we sent them the message saying you're doing better than
your neighbors,  we put a smiley face emoticon next to their score," he said.
"And that kept them down below what any of their neighbors were doing."

Note how simply redefining high social status (in this case, energy conservation)
helped to change behavior.

In addition, women may have a special role to play.  They need to be prepped
to find "ecological men" of limited resource consumption really, really sexy.
Unfortunately, sexual selection has designed women to tend to prefer
"alpha males" -- high status, high consumption, high resource control men
(in ancestral times, they helped women's children survive and thrive).

Men are adapted to do their darned best to give women what they want, or face
reproductive oblivion.  One way that today's men have demonstrated their
high status has been to drive big SUVs.

However, what if tomorrow women found the guy behind the wheel of an electric
car irresistible? And, what if women sexually rejected the guy driving a big, gas
guzzling SUV?   What do you think would happen to electric car sales?
 

And, again, powerful media / advertising messages can help to fool our psychological
adaptations.  (This is called "social advertising" or "social marketing.")  We need to
develop a strong "social narrative" of mutual cooperation on a finite planet.

However, right now, we are getting advertising messages from oil and coal
companies that implicitly discourage the use of clean, renewable energy.
For example, here is a commercial developed by the coal industry that makes
some dubious claims:

 

                          

Note in the video above that the coal companies are not trying to directly sell
you coal.  They are attempting to change your attitudes about coal, and
thus create a social and political climate favorable to their industry.

Below is a video parody of a "clean coal"  TV commercial:
 

                                

 

Needed:  A sustainability movement and world leadership that
is not "near-sighted."

A new social movement is needed - a sustainability movement. 
This is particularly important for anyone who plans to live in the future. 

Young people in particular need to mobilize and demand change now.  
A grass-roots movement of the magnitude of the civil rights movement in the
1960s, the women's rights movement of the 1970s, is needed.  Today no one wants
to be called a racist or a sexist.  Those movements had clearly defined
out-groups to vilify as the "enemy" -- and that may have helped to mobilize
and motivate activists.

But who is the enemy now?  There is no out-group.  The enemy is us. 
We are fighting against ourselves -- our base psychological adaptations
to compete for relative status,  mates and resources.

And calling someone a "non-sustainablist" doesn't have the same stigma or sting.
Perhaps sometime in the future it will. 

In addition, will those who are currently powerful expend their political capital to
effect the desperately needed emergency transition to renewable energy,
and do so in time?  This is an ultimate issue of vision and leadership.

There is the rub.
 

But what can I do?  I am just one person.

When people lead, leaders will follow.
    -- Gandhi

Politicians are like weather vanes; our job is to make the wind blow.
    -- David Brower

You can help to get the word out.  You can help to inform your family and friends.
Email them the link to this, and to other, peak oil web pages (see below for more
resources).  You can place posts with relevant web links on your social media
pages about the problem.   You can keep informed.  You can meet with others
in your community who understand the problem.  You can help your
community develop the resources, and resilience, to prepare.

Below are a couple of video clips from the film Fuel about the "bottom up"
political change that is needed.

 

                   

 

                  

                      For more info re the film "Fuel" see: http://www.thefuelfilm.com/
 

As noted in the video clips, you can help to inform and lobby politicians. 
You can vote out of office those who don't support an emergency transition
to renewable energy.

You can start to "be the change you want to see" by conserving energy and
using renewable energy.   Sure, it may be a very small contribution. 
But other people will notice.

Let's do our best to recognize and to accept the serious oil depletion problem we face, and
let's work cooperatively to help to mitigate what is likely to be a very challenging
and difficult transition period to renewable energy.

Visitors since August, 2008:
 

 

 

For some more of my thoughts regarding these issues, see:

My PowerPoint slides from my talk presented at the 2005 LMU Bellarmine Forum:
"Why A Sense of Global Community Needed to Survive the Coming World-wide
Energy Crisis: Peak Oil, Ecological Carrying Capacity, and the Perilous Phase
Transition to Renewable Energy Sources."

 

Information about Preparing for Peak Oil:

PostPeakLiving.com  -- Excellent resources -- in particular, see their video Preparing for a Post Peak Life
      and Best of the Oil Drum Index

Transition United States:   http://www.transitionus.org/

Transition Culture (UK):  http://transitionculture.org/

Local Future:  http://www.localfuture.org/

Community Solution:  http://www.communitysolution.org/

Association for the Study of Peak Oil:  http://www.peakoil.net/

ChrisMartenson.com -- author of the video slideshow Crash Course.   Explore this website -- much
     useful information.

Post Carbon Institute helps individuals and communities understand and respond to the environmental,
     societal, and economic crises created by our dependence on fossil fuels.

Titanic Lifeboat Academy  Helping people build lifeboats for the transition through resource depletion,
       climate change & population overshoot

Relocalize.net

TransitionTowns.org

PostCarbonCities.net

Life After the Oil Crash -- Prepare Page

Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability

PeakOilPreparation  If you would like to read and/or contribute to a new wiki about preparing
       for peak oil.

Stoneleigh’s peak oil/finance talk at the 2010 Transition Network Conference
      http://www.energybulletin.net/node/53116
      Listen to her talk here.

Article: Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?  

         Suggests that we might anticipate these changes:

1. Initially, higher prices for energy and food items and a major recession.
2. Longer term, a decline in economic activity.
3. Transportation difficulties and electrical outages.
4. Possible collapse of the monetary system.
5. Failure of economic assumptions to hold.
6. Changed emphasis to more local production.
7. Reduced emphasis on debt.
8. Reduced emphasis on insurance and pensions.
9. More people will perform manual labor.
10. Resource wars and migration conflicts.
11. Changes in family relationships.
12. Eventual population decline.

100 Things You Can Do to Prepare for Peak Oil, part 1 and part 2, by Sharon Astyk
       Also see her: blog post:  The Time Is Now (to prepare)
Australia, The Place to Be.  Part 1, Part 2, Part 3a Part 3b
Blog:  Future Prep  -- series of articles
List of preparation links
Energy Descent Action Plans - a primer by Adam Fenderson
How to pass a peak oil resolution, by David Room (for local governments). Also see
    The impact of Peak Oil on Rural Communities
Where To Live

And... a humorous (?) video:  "Post-Oil Man"

 

                           

        And... a more upbeat video about communities that are working
        to develop local renewable energy, including the Island of Aero in Denmark
        which is almost energy independent:
 

                 

      We also need to develop economic systems that are sustainable -- that do not
        require ever expanding growth to avoid collapse.  Here is a film trailer from
        the movie Hooked on Growth.
 

                
                   For more information about this video, see: http://growthbusters.org/

 

For more information about Peak Oil:

 Informative and brief (12 minute) Australian video about the problem:

      http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm  Highly recommended.

Slideshows:

     Chris Martenson's Crash Course Peak Oil Chapter.   Highly recommended.

     From Powerswitch.org.uk
        http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/images/stories/animoil.swf  (Brief overview.)

    Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity, by Borbert Beriault. A "PowerPoint book" -- excellent.
        http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/

 

Online Videos:

Links to lots of online videos about peak oil: http://peakaware.com/

Richard Heinberg -- Peak Everything.

Crude - the incredible journey of oil.  Australian Broadcasting Company. Recommended.

CNN production We Were Warned: Out of Gas with Frank Sesno.
( http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/14/bts.sesno.gas/index.html )

CNBC:  Crude Realities: Peak Oil Reality -- very brief interview with Matt Simmons  (November, 2007)

A CNN video about Report: 'World at peak oil output'   (Oct, 2007)  

Future Shock: End of the Oil Age.   Produced by RTE, Ireland.

M. King Hubbard discusses peak oil (1976)

Peak Moment TV a television series emphasizing positive responses to
energy decline and climate change through local community action.
Also available at Global Public Media

List of Peak Oil video material, compiled by SydneyPeakoil.com

BBC Documentary: The End of the Age of Oil

Peak OIl? ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)  -- excellent, balanced presentation. It
includes interviews with Colin Campbell,  Robert Hirsch,  Chris Skrebowski, and others.

Discovery Channel's Addicted to Oil reported by Thomas Friedman
(author of "The World is Flat").

Arithmetic, Population and Energy, Dr. Albert Bartlett  (Both video and MP3 available.
    A transcript is also available here.)   Highly recommended.
   Related readling: Are Humans Smarter Than Yeast? -- problems of exponential growth.  
   Also see these brief videos:
        Finite Resources and Expnential Growth
        Population Growth in a Yeast Colony.   
        The basics of making wine
        Human Population Explosion
        Living in Exponetial Times
        Population and Environment
    

Oil, Smoke and Mirrors.  documentary produced by Ronan Doyle.

The End of Suburbia

Asleep in America 7 Minute promo for upcoming documentary.

Chicago Tribune Documentary on Oil (includes video).  Know where your gas comes from? Find out.

A post-oil man. A humorous (?) look at preparing for peak oil.  Also see Dance, Moneys, Dance.  

Congressman Bartlett's Peak Oil Presentations to the US Congress:
    http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/531
    http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html   (March 14, 2005):
    Also see his interview on E&E TV:     http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=041805
 

Kenneth Deffeyes, author of "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak,"
explains his theories and looks at oil alternatives.
    http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=072705

 

Lecture by physics professor David Goodstein, author of "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil."
Lecture given at Caltech on 10/13/2004:
    http://today.caltech.edu/theater/list?subset=science  (search in list for lecture)

Lecture by chemistry professor Nathan Lewis: "Powering the Planet: Where in the World Will
Our Energy Come From?" Lecture given at Caltech on 5/25/2005.
      http://today.caltech.edu/theater/list?subset=all&story%5fcount=end  (search in list for lecture)

Lecture by Robert Kaufmann "Oil and the American Way of Life: Don't Ask, Don't Tell"
Fermilab Colloquium Lectures, June 1, 2005.
     http://vmsstreamer1.fnal.gov/VMS_Site_03/Lectures/Colloquium/050601Kaufmann/index.htm

Interview with  'Twilight in the Desert' author Matt Simmons. Are the Saudis running out of oil,
and are their reserve estimates accurate?  What other sources might help fill the gap?
(Originally aired: 06/15/2005)
     http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=061505

Chevron Oil -- television (and print) advertisements warning about peak oil:
     http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=072705   Also see their "Issues in Brief:"
     http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/

The myths, and pros and cons, of hydrogen fuel cells  (PBS - Nova)

BBC Connections: The Trigger Effect.   Excellent program on our interdependence on fragile links
between different forms of technology, with a focus on the 1965 New York blackout, and
the cascading technological collapses that followed. The film has some quite
ironic coincidences, showing the twin towers and an incoming flight with the flight number 911.
This is the documentary that prompted the 1996 film by the same name.  

DVDs:

History Channel -- Mega Disasters -- Oil Apocalypse (2007)

Escape from Suburbia (2007)

What a Way to Go: Life at the End of an Empire (2007)

Who Killed the Electric Car? See: Plug in America

A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (2006)  Recommended.

Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature (2005) 

The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream (2004)
 

Online audio programs:

Matt Savinar on Coast to Coast radio program, November, 2007  (mp3). 

Energy Roundtable -- Financial Sense Newshour  Features discussions
with James Howard Kunstler, author of "The
Long Emergency," and Richard Heinberg, author, "Powerdown: Options and
Actions for a Post-Carbon World." Also, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Beyond
Oil:Current Events, "... we passed the peak on December 16, 2005..."

Peak Oil in the Mainstream Press

Time Magazine:  Peak Possibilities, 11/21/2007

Wall Street Journal,  frontpage article, 11/19/07:  Oil Officials See Limit
Looming on Production

CNN: Report: 'World at peak oil output'   (Oct, 2007)   See a video about this report.
          See the source report by Energy Watch Group:  Oil Report Summary

Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak.  Associated Press / Forbes, 5/28/05

Additional online articles:

Peak Oil: Alternatives, Renewables, And Impacts, by Ciliffor Wirth
Updated quarterly. www.PeakOilAssociates.com

Peak Oil Booklet by Gail Tverberg
    Introduction and Chapter 1 - What Is Peak Oil?
    Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?
    Chapter 3: Peak Oil: What's Ahead?   
    Chapter 4: What Should We Do Now?

The Science of Oil and Peak Oil.  Part 1 and Part 2 by Gail Tverberg

Also see her articles on the Economic Impact of Peak Oil

Part 1: Economic Impact of Peak Oil A Flashback
Part 2: Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 2: Our Current Situation
Part 3: What's Ahead?

Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations

Peak Oil Report by Peak Oil Associates International (updated monthly).

Peak Oil Overview - June 2007

World Energy to 2050: A Half Centry of Decline and World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100
by Paul Chefurka

Material by professor Guy R. McPherson, University of Arizona.
Articles: The end of civilization and the extinction of humanity, and End of the world as we know it:
You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down
See his blog: Nature Bats Last, as well as an interview with him on Youtube.

Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle" -- if "peak oil" is scary, consider how "peak oil exports" will
    accelerate the onset of oil withdrawal syndrome.

FuelHardy by Richard Karn, the Emerging Trends Report, July 31, 2007

Brief summary of The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe
by Jeremy Leggett.

Energy and Human Evolution, by David Price

Energy Resources and Our Future - Speech by Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957

Peak Oil and famine: Four Billion Deaths, by Peter Goodchild

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US
by Dmitry Orlov

Peak oil consequences: neglecting future problems is a failure of leadership
by George Orwel

Freezing Point of Industrial Society

What Can Replace Cheap Oil -- and When?  Richard A. Kerr and Robert F. Service, Science,
Vol 309, Issue 5731, 101, 1 July 2005.

Peak Oil and Alternative Energy. Why there is no good alternative to oil (in terms of net energy).

Brief summary of Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
(study led by led by Dr. Robert Hirsch and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy).  Also,
see The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production, by Robert Hirsch, as well as Peaking of
World Oil Production: Problem, Complexity, Mitigation and Risks (a longer version is here).

Energy in a Nutshell, by Alice Friedemann.

U.S. National Commission on Energy Policy -- Oil Shockwave report.

On June 23, 2005, a group of nine former White House cabinet and senior national security officials convened to participate in
a simulated working group of a White House cabinet. Their task: to advise an American president
as the nation grapples with an oil crisis over a seven-month period. As they enter the room, they are
unaware of the circumstances or nature of the oil crisis.

Sweden plans to be world's first oil-free economy --15-year limit set for switch to renewable energy

Wall Street Journal article (8/3/05):  Drilling for Broke? Experts Debate 'Peak Oil'

Experts: Petroleum May Be Nearing a Peak.  Associated Press / Forbes, 5/28/05

The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization by Richard C. Duncan.  Recommended. (but depressing....)
   
List of online articles:  http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Articles.html
 

Psychological and ecological aspects of peak oil: Articles and websites specially related to psychological aspects of peak oil

Peak Oil - Believe it or Not?

Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks.

I am Human, I'm American, and I'm an Addict...

Resource Depletion, Persuasion, and the Ongoing World Meme

World Energy to 2050: A Half Centry of Decline and World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100
by Paul Chefurka

Article:  Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhhh.... YES! by Nate Hagens

Article: Denial Of Energy Crisis Is A Conditioned Response, by Dave Wheelock

Can Shrunken Families be Reflated? by Suart Staniford

Articles by Jay Hanson: dieoff.org
    Interview   Also see his discussions of The Tragedy of the Commons,
    Ecology, and Carrying Capacity.
    Evolutionary Psychology, Memes and the Origin of War   

Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future by Nate Hagens

The Behavioral Aspects of Peak Oil: Basic Contingencies, by Lyle Grant.  Summary
at TheOilDrum.com, and full paper (PDF) "Peak Oil as a Behavioral Problem" that appeared
in Behavior and Social Issues, 16, 65-88 (2007)

Happiness, economic growth, and oil prices, by Stuart Staniford

Energy Availability, Happines, and Beating Peak Oil Depression by Matt Savinar

Energy and Human Evolution, by David Price

The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge, US House of Representatives
Also see a discussion of this at the Oil Drum, including social psychologist Robert Cialdini's testimony.

Telling Others about Peak Oil -- problems of denial when warning family and friends about peak oil

PeakOilBlues.com --  website -- "peak oil aware" psychotherapists who know the stress the dawning
awareness of Peak Oil, and who wish to assist others in learning how to transform
any frozen or destructive emotional reactions into more proactive, productive responses.

 Books related to consumer psychology:

The Evolutionary Bases of Consumption, by Gad Saad (2007)

Luxury Fever, by Robert H. Frank  (2000)

Dealing With Peak Oil Depression By Peter Goodchild

More relevant articles at The Oil Drum, topic: Sociology/Psychology
 

Sustainable Economics:

Money Talks
" ...our economy fails to charge us the "true cost" of denying future generations
the fossil energy they might need to feed themselves 50 years hence."
 

Political Action and Peak Oil:

Election Time in the Land of Oz

The Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan

Websites and Email Groups:

 General:

http://www.theoildrum.com/ --peer reviewed and authoritative
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil  (lots of good links)
http://energybulletin.net/primer.php -- A peak oil primer
Association for the Study of Peak OIl and Gas (APSO-USA)
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net  -- sobering worst case scenarios
 http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/  -- The Beginner's Guide to Peak Oil
 www.powerswitch.org.uk/
 www.oilscenarios.info
 www.culturechange.org
 www.peakoil.net
 www.odac-info.org/
 www.willyoujoinus.com/  - Chevron Oil website on peak oil.

Wikipedia articles:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitigation_of_peak_oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-carbon_economy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_carbon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy:_world_resources_and_consumption
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_phase-out_in_Sweden-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Power_of_Community:_How_Cuba_Survived_Peak_Oil
 

Earth Clock -- population, etc.  http://www.celsias.com/2007/11/04/earth-clock/

Websites related to Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI, EROI, or "net energy" or "exergy")
-- one of the most essential concepts to understand with regard to oil and renewable energy:

http://www.oilcrisis.com/netEnergy/
EROEI Table:  http://www.oilcrisis.com/netEnergy/EROEI_UnknownSource.htm

Articles by Nate Hagens The Energy Return on Time, A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important?,
Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy

The energy dynamics of energy production.

Additional lists of peak oil links: 

http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm

 

Email Groups / Bulletin Boards: 

The Oil Drum -- excellent
Life After the Oil Crash Forum
RunningOnEmpty2 -- email group
killer_ape-peak_oil  email group -- some worst case scenarios

 

A few relevant books:

Recommended:

The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe
by Jeremy Leggett.  See a brief online summary.

The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel
by Stephen Leeb

The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change,
and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century,
by James Howard Kunstler (2005).  Also see a review of this book
in American Scientist.

 

Additional books (in order of publication date):

An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Malthus (1798)

 Books related to consumer psychology:

Spent: Sex, Evolution, and Consumer Behavior, by Geoffrey Miller

The Evolutionary Bases of Consumption, by Gad Saad (2007)

Luxury Fever, by Robert H. Frank  (2000)

 

Hope for some possible energy "technofixes"  (knock on wood that they
arrive in time, are rapidly scalable, have a high EROEI,
are renewable, clean and cheap):

The wiki New Energy Congress reviews the most promising claims for up-and-coming clean,
renewable, affordable, reliable energy technologies, in order to come up with a weighted list
of recommendations of the best technologies. See, in particular, their Top 100 Technologies.
Some of these are controversial (a few might be criticized as outright cranks), while others are
scientifically proven and commercially available.  See, in particular, the MagLev Wind Power Generator.

Oil produced by genetically modified algae via photosynthesis.  See this article, as well as
SapphireEnergy and GreenCrudeProduction.com.

Johnson Thermoelectric Energy Conversion System (JTEC) claims an energy conversion efficiency
rate that tops 60 percent with a new solid-state heat to electricity closed loop engine.
Also see this article.

Extreme hybrid cars get 150mpg.   See AFS Trinity Power (and their videos).

Article: Powering Civilization to 2050

Scientific American: A Solar Grand Plan By 2050 solar power could end U.S.
dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions

The Energy Blog   /    http://nextbigfuture.com

Toward An Ecotechnic Society

 A List of Possible Solutions for the Energy and Climate Change Crisis

New process generates hydrogen from aluminum alloy to run engines, fuel cells
    http://www.physorg.com/news98556080.html
        Slideshow:  http://hydrogen.ecn.purdue.edu./2005.10.28-Woodall/viewer.swf

Video: Electric cars   CBS segment on Tessla Motors and the GM Volt

100mpg plug-in hybrid cars - see this article.

Ultra-capacitors instead of batteries -- may give electric cars a 500 mile range on a 5 minute charge-up.

Oil shale may finally have its moment

Contrarian perspectives:

Apocalypse, Not. A Critical Look at Peak Oil Catastrophism, by Toby Hemenway

WSJ:  The World Has Plenty of Oil, By Nansen G. Saleri   "Where do reasonable
    assumptions surrounding peak oil lead us? My view, subjective and imprecise, points
    to a period between 2045 and 2067 as the most likely outcome."

Websites:  http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/    /    http://nextbigfuture.com
 

 

Predicting the future is very difficult:

"Prediction is very hard, especially when it is about the future."
    -- Yogi Berra (and other various authorities)/

Complexity Theory and Environmental Management, by Michael Crichton.  Also see
      his article  Why Speculate?

"Most people assume linearity in environmental processes, but
the world is largely non-linear: it's a complex system. An
important feature of complex systems is that we don’t know how
they work. We don’t understand them except in a general way;
we simply interact with them. Whenever we think we understand them,
we learn we don’t. Sometimes spectacularly."

Some botched predictions  /  1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators
Some botched predictions made in some popular films.  and in a 1958 Disney Animation.
What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years, by John Elfreth Watkins, Jr.,
   Ladies Home Journal, 1900.
Youtube video: Global Warming and Other Catastrophes
      Humorous (?) look at previous botched predictions of pending world catastrophes
      in the media (to the soundtrack of REM's "It's the End of the World As We Know It")

 

On a more sober  note:  Entertainment Scientists Warn Miley Cyrus
Will Be Depleted by 2013 (humor)

 

                             

 

Some related graphs:

 

Video clip with some interesting graphics related to peak oil:

 

 

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8745365@N04/2504887199/sizes/o/

 

 

Source:  http://awesome.goodmagazine.com/transparency/011/trans011oil.html